Trump touts report U.S. is set to become world's top oil producer

US shale price chart

The Asia-Pacific region is seen accounting for roughly 60% of global oil product demand growth over the next five years.

While oil stocks typically rise this time of year as refineries frequently close for maintenance, sustained increases in USA crude inventories has weighed on sentiment. The IEA forecast firmly puts United States in the driver's seat in driving global oil production.

Kachikwu said that the rapid growth in shale supply is "not just a problem for OPEC, it's a problem for the entire oil industry".

USA supplies will dominate oil markets for years to come, satisfying 80% of global demand growth to 2020, the International Energy Agency said.

The IEA said the U.S. would supply much of the world's growing oil demand over the same period as its shale oil production was set to surge. "Without large-scale capital investment, the US domestic market can only absorb about a quarter of the additional four million b/d of USA crude expected to enter markets [by] 2023, leaving the rest for exports", Wood Mackenzie said.

"Upstream investment may be inadequate to avoid a significant squeeze of the global spare capacity cushion by 2023", it said in a report released Monday.

"We can not ignore the growth coming from shale", IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told reporters at a briefing as CERAWeek kicked off. On the other hand, lower inventories and higher prices triggered another shale oil boom in the USA. "If you are a shale-oil producer, who brought you back?" OPEC member Venezuela has seen its oil production fall by more than half in the past 20 years, and declines are expected to accelerate.

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In its report, the agency warned that energy companies need to start spending again to avoid potential crude oil shortages after 2020 that could lead to surging prices.

The rebound, however, also spurred more drilling in the US, where operators found success in shale formations stretching from Texas to North Dakota to the Northeast. And yet, with oil trading about $10 higher than the average of 2017 the risk is still of more shale growth, rather than less. However, the country's more stringent policies to curb air pollution may slow growth. After it flooded the market in 2014, oil prices crashed, forcing shale producers to reshape themselves into fitter, leaner and faster versions that can thrive with oil at $50 a barrel. The continuous investment is essential because the world is losing about 3 million barrels each year due to the aging of oil fields.

Prices briefly pared losses after data from the Energy Information Administration said USA crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 2.7 million barrels.

Given their shared expectations of rising global demand and continued production declines from aging fields, Barkindo and Birol both emphasized the need for more upstream investment from regions outside the U.S. to maintain market stability in the 2020s.

In the United States, fuel-economy standards for passenger cars are seen curbing gasoline demand, but growth should come from the petrochemical sector, now thriving because of low-priced ethane. We had a really wonderful conversation, ” said Tim Dove, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources Co.

"The generalized market anxiety over what could end up being a global trade war is dragging everything down", said John Kilduff, partner at investment manager Again Capital in NY. Despite the emergence of renewables, global energy security depends mainly on fossil fuels for the foreseeable future.

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