What will be India's advanced GDP numbers for FY18?

GDP forecast at 6.5 per cent Chief Statistician Anant acknowledges GST as one of the factor

Among the sectors that are likely to register higher growth this fiscal are construction at 3.6% against 1.7% past year and trade, hotels, transport and communication and services related to broadcasting at 8.7% versus 7.8%.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) on Friday forecast that GDP growth in the current financial year ending March 31 will slow to a four-year low of 6.5%, from the provisional 7.1% pace seen in 2016-17, dragged down by deceleration in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors. The manufacturing sector is expected to grow by 4.6% vs 7.9% the previous year, agriculture by 2.1% vs 4.9%, electricity and utility services by 7.5% vs 7.2% in the last fiscal. "GDP growth of 6.5% for 2017-18 implies growth of 7% for the second half".

According to CSO, GVA is expected to grow at 6.1% during FY2017-18 against 6.6% in FY2016-17 at basic constant prices of 2011-12. The GDP in the first and second quarters of this fiscal grew at 5.7% and 6.3% respectively. GVA growth for construction is estimated at 3.6 per cent, up from 1.7 per cent a year ago, the CSO's advance estimate showed.

Chief Statistician TCA Anant said, "The de-stocking disruption caused due to the GST implementation has impacted the full-year GDP estimates".

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The lower growth will raise pressure on finance minister Arun Jaitley ahead of the February 1 budget to take steps to strengthen recovery even as he allocates more funds for key stakeholders ahead of elections next year.

CSO estimates suggest that in the current fiscal, the (Gross Value Added) growth in agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is set to decline to 2.1% as against the previous year's growth rate of 4.9%. However, the fiscal deficit at the end of November touched Rs 6.12 lakh crore, or 112 per cent of the budget estimate for 2017-18, mainly because of weak GST collections and higher government spending. "This will give momentum to growth in the next year". On other hand, a higher real GDP growth could well be an indicator about GST's minimal impact on prices of goods and services. "Accordingly, the advance estimates for GDP and GVA growth appear to be understating economic expansion for FY2018, in our view", she said in statement issued by the ICRA.

"Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2017-18 is 6.1% as against 6.6%t in 2016-17". "And as the estimates are missing the RBI expectations, the central bank is likely to pause in its next policy meeting in February 2018".

But the full-year number was crimped as the economy had been hobbled by a growth rate of 5.7 per cent in the first quarter (April-June) and 6.3 per cent in the July-September quarter.

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